Analysis | Why some of this conservative leader’s colleagues hope he loses tonight (2024)

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) has made a lot of enemies since he arrived in Congress in 2021. His defiance of leadership and willingness to take on his own colleagues could cost him his seat tonight.

Good, the chairman of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, earned former president Donald Trump’s enmity by endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for president. He angered several of his colleagues this year by endorsing their primary opponents. He infuriated other House Republicans by voting last year to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). And he upset the pro-Israel lobby by voting in April against sending military aid to Israel.

More than half a dozen House Republicans are backing Good’s challenger in today’s primary, state Sen. John McGuire. So is Trump, who held a tele-town hall last night for McGuire.

Other Republicans facing tough primaries this year have eked out victories, and Good could win tonight. But some House Republicans hope he’ll lose and send a signal to their colleagues who have rebelled against McCarthy and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).

“This is an opportunity for all of the division within the Republican conference to come to an end,” Rep. William Timmons (R-S.C.) told us. “We’re going to cut out the cancer.”

Timmons has reason to be mad. He narrowly defeated a Good-endorsed primary challenger last week. He responded by donating the maximum amount to McGuire’s campaign and traveling to Good’s district over the weekend to knock doors for McGuire.

But he’s not the only Republican who is betting that Good losing will bring their colleagues in line.

Good’s allies have traveled to his rural Virginia district to campaign with him. House Freedom Action, a super PAC with ties to the Freedom Caucus, has spent more than $750,000 trying to defeat McGuire.

“We’ve got a one-seat majority,” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) told a crowd in Scottsville, Va., in March while campaigning with Good. “Imagine if the one-seat majority consisted of somebody other than Bob Good from your district. That would be a disaster.”

But the ideological divisions aren’t as clear-cut as they might seem.

One Freedom Caucus member, Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), endorsed McGuire on Sunday. McGuire has said he would consider joining the Freedom Caucus if he won. And Timmons said he saw only a handful of Freedom Caucus members and other Republicans as the problem.

“This is not about the Freedom Caucus,” Timmons said. “I love the Freedom Caucus.”

Some Good allies said that while they’re campaigning hard for him, a Good loss wouldn’t diminish their influence in the conference.

Good’s primary comes after several candidates backed by Freedom Caucus members came up short, including Rick Becker, who lost the primary for the open House seat in North Dakota last week, and South Carolina state Rep. Adam Morgan, who lost to Timmons.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who has campaigned with Good and has backed several Republicans who have lost primaries, including Becker and Morgan, played down his allies’ defeats.

“We’ve come up one percentage point short in two races,” he said.

The primary has drawn heavy spending on both sides.

Conservative Outsider PAC, a super PAC funded by Club for Growth Action, which has endorsed Good, has spent more than $3 million backing the incumbent. (The Club endorsed Good.)

American Patriots PAC has spent $4.4 million trying to beat Good. The group is funded by the Republican megadonors Ken Griffin, Paul Singer and Warren Stephens, who have also given to another super PAC that has backed mainstream Republicans in primaries this cycle.

Griffin gave $6 million to American Patriots PAC, making him its largest donor.

“The American Patriots PAC steadfastly supports veteran candidates who have dedicated themselves to our nation, and John McGuire exemplifies this commitment,” Griffin said in a statement.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s super PAC, which has poured millions of dollars into defeating Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) in his primary next week, has invested a relatively small amount in mailers criticizing Good for voting in April against aid to Israel.

Few Republicans have more cause to be angry with Good than Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Tex.), who barely won a primary runoff last month against a challenger Good backed.

But Gonzales hasn’t endorsed McGuire, even though he said he would be within his rights to do so. Instead, he is betting that staying out of the race will do more to heal Republicans’ divisions.

“At some point, somebody has to put the guns down,” Gonzales said. “And we have to unite and we have to be focused on making sure we keep the majority.”

Here are two other primaries we’re watching tonight:

Republican Rep. Tom Cole, who became chairman of the House Appropriations Committee in April after more than two decades in Congress, is facing an expensive primary challenge from Paul Bondar, a businessman who has loaned his campaign more than $5 million.

Bondar has attacked Cole over government spending but has faced criticism for moving to the district recently from Texas. Trump has endorsed Cole.

Eugene Vindman is the front-runner in the Democratic primary for the seat Rep. Abigail Spanberger is relinquishing to run for governor. Vindman became famous when his twin brother, Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, testified before Congress about Trump’s phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, leading to Trump’s first impeachment.

Republicans also have a competitive primary, with Derrick Anderson facing off against Cameron Hamilton. Hamilton has the backing of Gaetz, Good and Roy as well as several other members of the Freedom Caucus.

Biden won the district by about seven points in 2020, making it potentially competitive.

Correction: A previous version of this story misstated Adam Morgan’s title. He is a South Carolina state representative.

President Biden is expected to announce a new executive action today that would protect undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens from deportation. The president will highlight the new action at an event at the White House today commemorating the 12th anniversary of Dreamers being protected from deportation via the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.

Immigrant advocates are praising Biden’s new “parole in place” action, especially after many decried Biden’s recent executive order that would shut down the border to asylum seekers if border crossings are too high.

We’re watching to see how Republicans respond to today’s executive action.

Sen. Martin Heinrich is releasing his first ad of the campaign cycle today. The New Mexico Democrat, who is running for his third term, isn’t taking any chances in this blue state. He’s running against Nella Domenici, the daughter of the late senator Pete Domenici, a Republican who became a political institution in New Mexico.

The ad, titled “Dad,” is a positive biographic ad narrated by Heinrich that pays tribute to his father and all the New Mexicans who have the “same work ethic.”

The $150,000 ad buy is running on television across the state this week. It’s a relatively cheap ad buy but goes far in the state’s low-cost media markets.

Heinrich won his reelection by 23 points in 2018. Biden beat Trump by nearly 11 points in the state in 2020.

But Trump told House Republicans in a meeting last week that he is expanding the presidential battleground map to New Mexico.

North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's past comments defending Harvey Weinstein and others accused or convicted of sexual assault have resurfaced as Robinson runs for governor as the Republican nominee this cycle.

Robinson also reportedly suggested former NFL player Ray Rice's fiancée was at fault for a physical alteration that received viral attention after a video of Rice dragging her out of an elevator came out. Robinson has a history of controversial remarks, including claiming the count of Holocaust victims was inflated.

Robinson’s comments aren’t likely to help him win over women, a key voting bloc in North Carolina this cycle.

A Robinson campaign spokesperson accused The Washington Post of writing “partisan hit pieces” about Robinson when asked about his remarks.

A poll from April found Robinson at 45 percent and his Democratic opponent, North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein, at 47 percent.

In 1977, Talking Heads frontman David Byrne sang in the song “Don’t Worry About the Government”: “I see the laws made in Washington, D.C.; I think of the ones I consider my favorites; I think of the people that are working for me.”

Today, Byrne will be on the Hill meeting with senators of both parties about the American Music Fairness Act.

The bipartisan bill, which is stalled in Congress, would require terrestrial radio — AM and FM stations — to pay artists royalties when their songs are played. Currently, artists receive royalties when songs are streamed digitally.

“Democracy in action!” Byrne said in a statement to the Early. “Radio is currently the only music platform that refuses to pay the performer and it’s time to put a stop to this. The only other countries that don’t pay are North Korea, Iran and Cuba, so c’mon, let’s do this!”

Radio station owners, including iHeartRadio, which owns more than 800 stations, is opposed to the bill. The National Association of Broadcasters, which represents station owners, said in 2022 that a fee to artists would “irrevocably damage local radio.”

The bill, co-sponsored by Sens. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) and Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), has been introduced in the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Roughly 6 in 10 Americans consider diversity, equity and inclusion programs “a good thing,” according to a new poll from The Washington Post and Ipsos.

DEI programs have been a Republican target in recent years, with Republican-led legislatures around the country pushing for anti-DEI legislation at the state level. Despite criticism from the right, the Post-Ipsos poll found that a majority of people support DEI, and that their support increases when they are given specific details about programming. Sixty-one percent of respondents said DEI programs are good when asked a generic question about them, but 69 percent said they were good when give the following definition: “programs to hire more employees from groups that are underrepresented in their workforce, such as racial and ethnic minorities and people with disabilities and to promote equity in the workplace.”

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Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, please call your office