Surprise Attack: A Framework for Discussion (2024)

Intelligence Success and Failure: The Human Factor

Rose McDermott andUri Bar-Joseph

Published:

2017

Online ISBN:

9780190677008

Print ISBN:

9780199341733

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Intelligence Success and Failure: The Human Factor

Rose McDermott andUri Bar-Joseph

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Uri Bar-Joseph,

Uri Bar-Joseph

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Rose McDermott

Rose McDermott

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Pages

9–26

  • Published:

    March 2017

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Bar-Joseph, Uri, and Rose McDermott, 'Surprise Attack: A Framework for Discussion', Intelligence Success and Failure: The Human Factor (New York, 2017; online edn, Oxford Academic, 23 Mar. 2017), https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199341733.003.0002, accessed 10 June 2024.

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Abstract

Beginning with a theoretical overview of surprise attacks, we discuss their important role in military strategy and success. We describe our case selection strategy, using criteria based on attacks that started a war, and subsequent events taken in response to those attacks. We discuss Roberta Wohlstetter’s pioneering and influential study of Pearl Harbor and describe the uniqueness of this case and why her argument about signal-to-noise ratio may be less relevant for other cases of intelligence failure. More often, high quality decision-making is impaired by specific obstacles in the psychological characteristics of leaders and the environments and organizations they structure.

Keywords: surprise attack, strategic surprise, Pearl Harbor, intelligence success and failure, intelligence warning, warning failure

Subject

Political Theory International Relations

Collection: Oxford Scholarship Online

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